I have invested on forex market for a while and frequently heard about carry trade. As i know, this term means to buy in like Euro/Yen pair to profit from the difference between the two currency’s interest rate. The diffence in this pair’s interest rate is 3.5% now, but what about the GBD/USD pair which has only o.25% in difference?
If trillions of dollars gets traded back and forth on a daily basis, it doesn’t make any sense that everyone has to pay a spread of 0.03%, because that is a lot of money that is disappearing from everyone’s pockets, a billion dollars a day, and even if they did all have to pay it, it has to be going to someone. Someone who is able to trade for free because he is the one who keeps the profits of the difference between bid and ask. Who is that someone?
I ask because I have created an adaptive trading method that only works with horribly low spread. Too low for me to use, but it must be horrifically valuable to SOMEone out there. And when I say it is adaptive, I mean that there is no a priori strategy, it looks at the last 63 days every 2 weeks and decides on the trading rules it will apply over the next two weeks from that alone, so it isn’t adapted to any future data; it’s not cheating. Operating on the USD/JPY from July 1, 2007 to Feb 13, 2009, these are its results from one run (since it contains random variables, if you ran it again on the exact same data you’d get different numbers, but the same SORTS of results):
Commission=0.02:
Total gain=1.9586666009107498e-001
Total commissions=4.3467080397738096e+000
Commission=0.01:
Total gain=1.4452129891615770e+000
Total commissions=2.5255991687861270e+000
Commission=0.0079:
Total gain=6.0134531854447415e+000
Total commissions=1.3535088531109761e+001
Commission=0.005:
Total gain=8.3681903017587498e+007
Total commissions=2.2229280168087495e+008
Commission=0.0029:
Total gain=5.3964686183550566e+012
Total commissions=6.6395560659541475e+012
Commission=0.0019:
Total gain=3.7134772078865466e+017
Total commissions=2.0657410633892125e+017
Commission=0:
Total gain=4.7437229016568531e+049
Total commissions=0
Note that 5.5e+026 is the computer’s way of expressing scientific notation, and that example would be 5.5 times 10 to the 26th power.
As you can see, it works astronomically well with as low a spread as possible, but nothing that is given realistically by any brokers to small fish like me.
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The answer I will not accept:
“there would be no one willing to facilitate trades if they didn’t get to take a cut”
Obviously. I’m asking if there’s anyone who takes a smaller cut. Or maybe a cut that doesn’t go up with trade size – after all, buy stocks with a stock broker, and it’s usually 5 or 10 dollars per TRADE. But it doesn’t matter what the trade size is. But with a spread on the forex market, with double the trade size, it’s double the commission. And like I said, whoever IS pocketing the difference, surely HE must be able to trade without a spread since he’s the one who pockets the difference! Certainly this would be worth something to THAT person. It is fundamentally impossible for everyone to lose that money when they trade because it GOES somewhere, and it certainly doesn’t COST that much to keep the markets running. It doesn’t cost anyone anything for me to enter in an electronic order to trade 300 thousand dollars for 30 million yen and for it all to be carried out by computers but I lose about 100 dollars each round trip in the act of doing so. Maybe at the very least there’s some group of people who pay, say, a million dollars a year for however much trading they want, in lieu of spreads. This trading method would make a lot more than that million dollars.
There is not exact science to the FX market. It is very easy to make at least 15 pips per day, but you can also loose 100 jut as fast. There are plenty os systems out there that you can pay a lot of money for but most are a waste of money. I do not work for any fx sites and have looked at most out there I use FXCM.com they give you everything you need to learn, for free. It has taken me 4 years to figure out a system that works for me, by looking at the charts and being patient (Hint – look at the bollinger bands and the SMA) you can make your 15. Good Luck
The US dollar keeps losing value against most of the world’s major currencies. Only a few years ago, the Canadian dollar used to be worth 67 cents in the US. Now they are equal, and the $CDN will probably be more valuable than the $US by tomorrow. It takes $1.40 now to buy ONE Euro, and more than $2 to buy a single British pound.
How do you feel about this? Are you angry that Bush broke his campaign promise to ‘defend a strong dollar?’ Do you at least accept that Bush is a liar, given the dollar’s condition?
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